Peer-reviewed papers

Note:
The links for "Time capsuled code" provide code for reproducing the numerical results of each paper.
Graduate student working under my supervision
Undergraduate student working under my supervision

Accepted or in subsequent round of review


  • N Dey, R Martin, and J P Williams (202x). Anytime-valid generalized universal inference on risk minimizers. To appear in Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B.
    Link: Manuscript.

  • N Dey, R Martin, and J P Williams (202x). Multiple testing in generalized universal inference. To appear in Statistics and Probability Letters.
    Link: Manuscript.

  • J P Williams (202x). Model-free generalized fiducial inference. R&R Journal of Machine learning Research.
    Link: Manuscript. Link: Time capsuled code (Julia code).

  • N Dey and J P Williams (202x). Valid inference for machine learning model parameters. R&R Electronic Journal of Statistics.
    Link: Manuscript.

  • J Hickey, J P Williams, B J Reich, and E C Hector (202x). Multivariate and online transfer learning with uncertainty quantification. R&R Statistics in Medicine.
    Link: Manuscript.

  • M A Abba, J P Williams, and B J Reich (202x). A Bayesian shrinkage estimator for transfer learning. R&R Journal of Multivariate Analysis.
    Link: Manuscript.

  • A Murph, C B Storlie, P M Wilson, J P Williams, and J Hannig (202x). Bayes Watch: Bayesian change-point detection for process monitoring with fault detection. R&R Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation.
    Link: Manuscript.

  • A Murph, J Hannig, and J P Williams (202x). Generalized fiducial inference on differentiable manifolds. R&R International Journal of Approximate Reasoning.
    Link: Manuscript.

2025


  • D Randahl, J P Williams, and H Hegre (2025). Bin-conditional conformal prediction of fatalities from armed conflict. Political Analysis 1-13.
    Link: Manuscript.

  • A Hjort, G H Hermansen, J Pensar, and J P Williams (2025). Uncertainty quantification in automated valuation models with spatially weighted conformal prediction. International Journal of Data Science and Analytics 1-18.
    Link: Manuscript.

  • E B Kendall, J P Williams, G H Hermansen, F Bois, and V H Thanh (2025). Beyond time-homogeneity for continuous-time multistate Markov models. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 34 (2) 668-682.
    Link: Manuscript.

  • N Singer, J P Williams, and S Ghosh (2025). Conformal prediction for astronomy data with measurement error. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 539 pp.1372-1380.
    Link: Manuscript.

  • R Martin and J P Williams (2025). Asymptotic efficiency of inferential models and a possibilistic Bernstein-von Mises theorem. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 180 pp.e109389.
    Link: Manuscript.

  • V V Volpe, E B Kendall, A N Collins, M G Graham, J P Williams, and S J Holochwost (2025). Prior exposure to racial discrimination and patterns of acute parasympathetic nervous system responses to a race-related stress task among black adults. Psychophysiology 62 (1) pp.e14713.
    Link: Manuscript.

2024


  • N Dey, R Martin, and J P Williams (2024). Neil Dey, Ryan Martin, and Jonathan P Williams' contribution to the Discussion of "Safe Testing" by Grünwald, de Heide, and Koolen. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B 86 (5) pp.1147-1148.
    Link: Manuscript.

  • N Dey, M Singer, S Sengupta, and J P Williams (2024). Word embeddings as statistical estimators. Sankhyā B 86 (part 2) pp.415-441.
    Link: Manuscript.

  • J Hickey, J P Williams, and E C Hector (2024). Transfer learning with uncertainty quantification: Random effect calibration of source to target (RECaST). Journal of Machine Learning Research 25 (338) pp.1-40.
    Link: Manuscript.

  • J P Williams and Y Liu (2024). Decision theory via model-free generalized fiducial inference. Belief Functions: Theory and Applications 14909 Springer pp.131-139.
    Link: Manuscript.

  • R Martin and J P Williams (2024). Large-sample theory for inferential models: A possibilistic Bernstein–von Mises theorem. Belief Functions: Theory and Applications 14909 Springer pp.111-120.
    Link: Manuscript.

  • A Hjort, J P Williams, and J Pensar (2024). Clustered conformal prediction for the housing market. Proceedings of the Thirteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, in Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 230 pp.366-386.
    Link: Manuscript.

  • J P Williams, G H Hermansen, H Strand, G Clayton, and H M Nygård (2024). Bayesian hidden Markov models for latent variable labeling assignments in conflict research: application to the role ceasefires play in conflict dynamics. Annals of Applied Statistics 18 (3) pp.2034-2061.
    Link: Manuscript. Link: Time capsuled code (R code).

  • N Giertych, A Shaban, P Haravu, and J P Williams (2024). A statistical primer on classical period-finding techniques in astronomy. Reports on Progress in Physics 87 (7) 078401 pp.1-18.
    Link: Manuscript. Link: Time capsuled code (Python and R code).

  • A Murph, J Hannig, and J P Williams (2024). Introduction to generalized fiducial inference. Handbook of Bayesian, Fiducial, and Frequentist Inference (1st ed.) Chapman and Hall/CRC pp.276-299.
    Link: Manuscript. Link: Time capsuled code (R code).

2023


  • M A Abba, J P Williams, and B J Reich (2023). A penalized complexity prior for deep Bayesian transfer learning with application to materials informatics. Annals of Applied Statistics 17 (4) pp.3241–3256.
    Link: Manuscript.

  • N Dey, J Ding, J Ferrell, C Kapper, M Lovig, E Planchon, and J P Williams (2023). Conformal prediction for text infilling and part-of-speech prediction. New England Journal of Statistics in Data Science 1 pp.69-83.
    Link: Manuscript. Link: Time capsuled code (Julia code and Python code).

  • S Koner and J P Williams (2023). The EAS approach to variable selection for multivariate response data in high-dimensional settings. Electronic Journal of Statistics 17 (2) pp.1947-1995.
    Link: Manuscript. Link: Time capsuled code (R code).

  • J P Williams, D M Ommen, and J Hannig (2023). Generalized fiducial factor: an alternative to the Bayes factor for forensic identification of source problems. Annals of Applied Statistics 17 (1) pp.378–402.
    Link: Manuscript. Link: Time capsuled code (R code).

  • J P Williams, Y Xie, and J Hannig (2023). The EAS approach for graphical selection consistency in vector autoregression models. Canadian Journal of Statistics 51 (2) pp.674-703.
    Link: Manuscript. Link: Supplementary material. Link: Time capsuled code (mostly Python code, some R code).

2021


  • J P Williams (2021). Discussion of A Gibbs sampler for a class of random convex polytopes. Journal of the American Statistical Association 116 (535) pp.1198-1200.
    Link: Manuscript.

  • S Nghiem, J P Williams, C Afoakwah, Q Huynh, S K Ng, and J Byrnes (2021). Can administrative health data improve the gold standard? Evidence from a model of the progression of myocardial infarction. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18 (14) pp.7385.
    Link: Manuscript.

2020


  • J P Williams, C B Storlie, T M Therneau, C R Jack Jr, and J Hannig (2020). A Bayesian approach to multi-state hidden Markov models: application to dementia progression. Journal of the American Statistical Association 115 (529) pp.16-31.
    Link: Manuscript. Link: Supplementary material. Link: Time capsuled code (R code).

2019


  • J P Williams and J Hannig (2019). Nonpenalized variable selection in high-dimensional linear model settings via generalized fiducial inference. Annals of Statistics 47 (3) pp.1723-1753.
    Link: Manuscript. Link: Supplementary material. Link: Time capsuled code (mostly Python code, some R code).

  • E Sechi, E Shosha, J P Williams, S J Pittock, B G Weinshenker, B M Keegan, N L Zalewski, A S Lopez-Chiriboga, J Jitprapaikulsan, and E P Flanagan (2019). Aquaporin-4 and MOG autoantibody discovery in idiopathic transverse myelitis epidemiology. Neurology 93 (4) pp.e414-e420.
    Link: Manuscript.

2018


  • I Carmichael and J P Williams (2018). An exposition of the false confidence theorem. Stat 7 (1) pp.e201.
    Link: Manuscript. Link: Time capsuled code (R code).

2015


  • J P Williams and Y Lu (2015). Covariance Selection in the Linear Mixed Effect Model. Journal of Machine Learning Research: Workshop and Conference Proceedings 44 pp.277-291. (NIPS conference session).
    Link: Manuscript. Link: Time capsuled code (R code).

Preprints


  • Y Liu and J P Williams (202x). An improved solution to the two normal means problem via regularization. In review.
    Link: Manuscript.

  • E Yanchenko, J P Williams, and R Martin (202x). Hypothesis testing for community structure in temporal networks using e-values. In review.
    Link: Manuscript.

  • I Carmichael, T Keefe, N Giertych, and J P Williams (202x). yaglm: a Python package for fitting and tuning generalized linear models that supports structured, adaptive and non-convex penalties. In progress.
    Link: Manuscript.